Viksit Bharat, 2047: Peeping into a Pledge

Bhaskar Majumder

The number of ways Bharat is perceived is unnumbered because Bharat is a civilisation. The way Viksit is pledged has its major connotations in an economy and not in a civilisation. Though the economy takes birth in the womb of the society and though the society is an integral component of India’s civilisation, human tendency is to focus on the immediate past that is the economy rather than searching for the society-civilisation in which the economy took birth.

While Bharat refers to time immemorial, Viksit stands on specific time-horizon. The pledge, ‘Viksit Bharat, 2047’, carries meaning for 2047 completes a century since India’s independence, 1947. Of course, India’s history did not start in 1947. ‘Viksit Bharat’ means developed India. In all probability, viksit is understood as economic development.

Success and Failure, 1947-2014
The thinkers under the political leadership of India’s first Prime Minister introduced first five-year plan in India in 1951; in parallel, first general election was held in 1952–economics and politics moved parallel for probably political consensus. The major problems then were Partition of Bengal and Punjab on the east and west of British India. This showed influx of population as refugees that could not be readily absorbed in the job market. In spite of able leadership of Dr.Bidhan Chandra Roy as chief minister of West Bengal till 1962 at a stretch, the crises culminated to reach its peak in mid-1960s. The unwelcome partition of the land also brought about a major chunk of development fund oriented to military expenses for perceived hostility on both the east and west of post-independent India.

The steadiness and stability of India’s economy till mid-1960s stood on committed political leadership, first three five-year plans for industrialisation that got shocks since Indo-Pak war of 1965, drought 1966-67, and consequent food insecurity. The immediate resultant was end of uninterrupted ‘planning era’ and advent of ‘Plan Holiday’. The shocks multiplied for the 1971 Bangladesh war that saw entry of more population from newly formed politically sovereign Bangladesh.

The Fourth Five-Year Plan (1969-1974) talked about decentralised planning but it was too late to capture either inclusive development or ensure poverty eradication. The-then Prime Minister announced ‘garibihatao’ in 1972 that was incorporated in Fifth Five-Year Plan (1974-1979). The whole of 1980s was a decade of crisis management.

The ‘vikas path’ since 1991 followed New Economic Policy (NEP) that opened the gateway of India for trade and investment. It aimed at reducing state-control over industries in favour of privatisation. Already, the idea that ‘there is no alternative’ (TINA) was floated for acceptance of privatisation-liberalisation. Because of the adverse conditions, ultimately the 11th Five-Year Plan (2007-2012) announced ‘inclusive development’ as the major objective that got repeated in 12th Five-Year Plan (2012-2017) through the pledge of ‘more inclusive development’. The 12th Plan was terminated in 2014 as a consequence of change of political era.

Post-2014 Decade
Some of the problems that remained concealed during pre-2014 era got revealed during post-2014 era. Non-Performing Assets (NPAs) increased by leaps and bounds, unclaimed deposits in the banking system became robust, some crooks looted bank money. The wealth of the economy of India was enormously drained out. An effort was made in the very recent past to dig out black money through declaration of ‘Demonetisation’. In parallel, it was an era of de-unionisation based on scattered-fractured labour employment based on wages per day that maintained the large chunk of youth at the margin of the economy. The phenomenon of demographic disaster was concealed in ‘adverse inclusion’ trap. The basic structure of the economy remained mixed but it tilted in favour of the private enterprises contrary to the initial years of planning meant to form ‘socialistic pattern of society’ as declared in December, 1954 in the Parliament.

A Critique of Vikas
Critical analyses cropped up regarding the path of India’s economic development of which the major ones were consumer good-capital goods imbalance, comfort goods-wage goods imbalance, quantitative restrictions on trade, failure to ‘catch up’, failure of trickle down, non-expanding internal market and so on. The other types focused on conventional criticism like poverty-inequality-unemployment. Under the above conditions, one escape route was formation of administered market where labour could be used and food could be had–‘roji-roti’. The Essential Commodities Act, 1955 aimed at food security; the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA), 2005 aimed to ensure minimum 100-day guarantee of employment per household per year.

Internal inter-firms demand for capital goods was there but exports of these goods did not succeed much because of perpetuation of colonial division of labour. India remained a country based on exports of tea, jute as commercial crops and agricultural goods in the main. The trade balance and terms of trade remained adverse on any medium-term period for India’s economy. The absence of adequate internal demand for produced goods could not be compensated by external demand.

The basic structure of a mixed economy remained intact post-2014 with a tilt towards the private enterprises particularly towards monopoly and concentration of capital. Meanwhile labour market got fragmented and fractured implying declined power of labour in bargaining vis-à-vis capital with adverse impact on wage share. A perpetual condition of poverty-inequality-unemployment, and inter-generational untouchability made a large section of population excluded from development.

Bharat is viksit when its people are viksit. People are viksitwhen they are hunger-free, educated, healthy, and people of consequence by conscious participation in decision-making processes. Self-engagement and ad hoc works surely ensure income in cash and kind for the workers so engaged. What is urgent is to promote regular wage-employment for the willing workers. This requires expansion of the organised sector of the economy.

Initial conditions of any economy cannot be altered. Processes do not repeat. Consequences are unforeseen. Hence, what people talk about are the processes.

The processes stand on a basic structure and the derivatives from it. An economy cannot move forward unless the base is strong. In order to make the base strong, there has to be collaboration between industries and public research institutions, education and work environment need to maintain symbiotic relationship, brain already drained needs ‘reverse migration’ to create ‘brain pool’.

Under the above conditions, the state has to eliminate the trust-deficit between the public intellectuals and the government, promote education for all, ensure preventive health care system, ensure women participation in the public domain, set up more public institutions starting from the bottom, make development plans ‘bottom up’, ensure all state policies and practices transparent.

Bharat of 2047 is difficult to visualise in 2025 because of internal and external political economic dynamics. Of course, long-term vision is required to understand where the economy stands two decades ahead in time. That requires an understanding of unnumbered factors that either exist or factors that are yet to be discovered. The task remains to ensure ‘development by willing participation of people’. The catalyst is the state.

[Bhaskar Majumder, Professor (Retd.), G. B. Pant Social Science Institute, Allahabad.]